Overall, according to the index, weekly chain store sales jumped by a solid 2.0% for the week ending June 21, 2014.
On a year-over-year basis sales also rose sharply and posted a 4.1% gain - the strongest year-over-year pace in more than a year. The previous high occurred for the week ending June 1, 2013, which was up 4.3% from its comparable week of the prior year.
“Business was up sharply relative to the same week of the prior year for most segments according to the ICSC-GS consumer tracking survey. This was especially seen in department stores, discounters, dollar stores and wholesale clubs as they all posted hefty year-over-year gains,” said Michael Niemira, ICSC vice president of research and chief economist. “June tends to be second highest sales volume month of the year, accounting about 10% of annual sales, so the recent strength is encouraging,” Niemira added.
Looking ahead, ICSC Research forecasts that June monthly comp-store sales will increase by 3.5% on a year-over-year basis.
Week Ending Index 1977=100 Year/Year Change Weekly Change
21-June-14 568.2 4.1% 2.0%
14-June-14 557.0 3.1% 0.4%
07-June-14 554.6 3.0% -2.8%
31-May-14 570.4 3.1% 2.9%
The Weekly Chain Store Sales Snapshot is produced by the International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs. This index measures U.S. nominal same-store or comparable-store sales excluding restaurant and vehicle demand.
The weekly index is constructed as a sales-weighted geometric average growth rate to preserve long-term consistency and is statistically benchmarked to a broad-based monthly retail industry sales aggregate that currently represents a sampling of leading retail chain stores, which also is compiled by ICSC. A representative sample of those major retailers has been used as a control group to extrapolate the weekly sales index.
As such, the weekly index statistically represents industry sales and is not just a sum of sales for a handful of retailers. The standard period used for the index is Sunday through Saturday, even though some retailers use a different weekly accounting period. The weekly sales index is presented on an adjusted basis to account for normal seasonality and to counter other data anomalies.
Weekly seasonal adjustment is at best difficult for chain store sales given that retailers can and often do shift promotions to counter typical shifts in the calendar. Nonetheless, the approach to weekly seasonal adjustment used follows from the Piser Method, which was popular in the early 1930s and became the standard for weekly adjustment.
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is a bank holding company and a leading global investment banking, securities and investment management firm. Goldman Sachs provides a wide range of services worldwide to a substantial and diversified client base that includes corporations, financial institutions, governments and high net worth individuals. Founded in 1869, the firm is headquartered in New York and maintains offices in London, Frankfurt, Tokyo, Hong Kong and other major financial centers around the world.
Founded in 1957, ICSC is the premier global trade association of the shopping center industry. Its more than 60,000 members in over 90 countries include shopping center owners, developers, managers, marketing specialists, investors, retailers and brokers, as well as academics and public officials. As the global industry trade association, ICSC links with more than 25 national and regional shopping center councils throughout the world.
For more information, visit www.icsc.org.
By press release
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