Business news : US, Retail imports grew in October despite shutdown

Import cargo volumes at major US retail container ports grew 6.5% year-on-year in October, despite the government shutdown, with growth likely to continue for the remainder of the year.

The figure is, however, lower than the 9.1% rise forecast earlier by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

Their joint Global Port Tracker report revealed that while some government workers involved with clearing cargo were furloughed during the 16-day shutdown, US Customs and Border Protection inspectors continued to work and no major disruptions of cargo handling were reported.

"Retailers place their orders for merchandise months ahead of time, so cargo arriving at the ports in October and for most of the rest of the year was ordered long before anybody ever heard of a shutdown," said NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy, Jonathan Gold.

"The question at this point isn't how much merchandise arrived but how much consumers bought, and how they are going to react as economic talks continue in Washington. Lawmakers need to take steps that build confidence, not continue the uncertainty."

Cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with sales because they count only the number of cargo containers, not the value of the merchandise inside them.

US ports followed by Global Port Tracker handled 1.43m Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (TEU) in September, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was down 3.6% from August but up 2% from September last year.

October was estimated at 1.43m TEU, up 6.5% from last year. November is forecast at 1.33m TEU, up 3.3% from last year; and December at 1.31m TEU, up 1.8%. January 2014 is forecast at 1.35m TEU, up 3% from January this year; February at 1.18m TEU, down 7.5% from last year; and March at 1.33m TEU, up 17%.

The first six months of 2013 totalled 7.8m TEU, up 1.2% from the first half of last year, while the total for this year is forecast at 16.2m TEU, up 2.3% from 2012's 15.8m TEU.

Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said the 2.3% increase for the year is down from the earlier forecast of 2.7%, with the shutdown and a relatively high inventory-to-sales ratio to blame.

"The GDP forecast for the remainder of this year is not expected to be seriously impacted by the government shutdown and growth going forward should be back to its expansionary path," Hackett said. "The first half of 2014 will bring solid growth back."

August, September and October are the months when most of the holiday season’s merchandise is brought into the country. The 4.35m cargo containers handled during those months combined represent a 4.3% increase over last year and account for 26.8% of all retail imports for the entire year.

By press release